Human are fallible creatures. We make mistakes and more often than not we aren’t able to realize it when we make one. One of the sources of such times is the bias from overconfidence. When we experience overconfidence, we overestimate our knowledge or our skills when in reality those confidences are baseless.
Don A. Moore, a psychologist from Psychology Today, thinks that this bias is the mother of biases because of two reasons. Firstly, it is so widespread and common that 93% of American drivers claim to be better than the median, which is virtually impossible [1]. The second reason is that it is the root of many other biases. If we didn’t realize that we are vulnerable to psychological biases, this will make us prone to many other biases. Disproportionate confidence in ourselves, either it is in terms of knowledge, skills, or judgement, will make us ignore that vulnerability. Hence, it triggers and amplifies other biases.
There is an interesting book written by Peter Bevelin entitled “Seeking Wisdom”. This book mentions about overconfidence:
“Most of us believe we are better performers, more honest and intelligent, have a better future, have a happier marriage, are less vulnerable than the average person, etc. But we can’t all be better than average.”
Knowing our tendency to be overconfident, what can we do to prevent this bias to ruin our lives? Charlie Munger says that we should train and habituate our thinking into using simple high school probability more often. Moreover, Peter Bevelin reminds us that in every situation we should focus on what can go wrong and the consequences. Finally, to always be skeptical is also great to prevent ourselves to be trapped by the cloud of overconfidence and over-optimism.
[1] Ola Svenson, ‘Are We Less Risky and More Skillful than Our Fellow Drivers?’, Acta Psychologica, 47 (1981), 143–51.
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หากจะกล่าวถึงเกมออนไลน์ที่เล่นง่ายได้เงินไวคงต้องยกให้าบคาร่าออนไลน์ บาคาร่า จึงได้รวมเกมออนไลน์ไว้ทั้งหมดจุดเด่นของบาคาร่าคือเกมจบไวใช้ทุนน้อยทำให้เหล่านักพนันหันมาให้ความสนใจบาคาร่าเป็นอย่างมาก คาสิโนออนไลน์ รองรับด้วยระบบที่ดีที่สุดเพื่อให้สมาชิกทำเงินได้จริงและได้มากที่สุด
สล็อตเกมยอดฮิตที่เด็กเล่นได้ผู้ใหญ่เล่นได้เงิน รวยไปแบบงงๆกันไปเลย กับ สล็อตออนไลน์ ที่ใครๆต่างยกให้เป็นเกมในคาสิโนที่ทำเงินง่าย การพนันออนไลน์ รวมสล็อตไว้ให้เพียบ แจ็คพอตเพียบ โบนัสก็เพียบ บอกเลยเว็บนี้เค้าแจกอย่างป๋า ต้องที่นี่ที่เดียว ครบจบที่ คาสิโนออนไลน์
แทงบอลได้เงินจริงต้องที่ คาสิโนออนไลน์ เว็บแทงบอลออนไลน์ที่มีให้เลือกเล่นหลากหลายรูปแบบทั้งบอลสเต็บ บอลคู่ บอลเดี่ยว บอลสด มาพร้อมระบบที่เรียกว่าดีที่สุดในปัจจุบันยิ่งเป็นส่วนสำคัญให้ท่านนั้นสามารถเดิมพันได้ง่ายและมีโอกาสทำเงินได้จริงเรามีระบบช่วยเหลือทั้งด้านข้อมูล ผลการวิเคราะห์ต่างๆอีกมากมาย
สาวกผี สาวกหงส์ สาวกราชสีห์ สาวกเรือ สาวกไก่ สาวกหมาจิ้งจอก ไม่ว่าคุณจะเป็นสาวกไหนก็ตาม คาสิโนออนไลน์ ขอเป็นส่วนใดส่วนหนึ่งสำหรับในการแปลงสิ่งที่คุณถูกใจเป็นรายได้ ด้วยการชูคาสิโนมาไว้ให้ท่านพนันบอลออนไลน์ได้อย่างไม่ยากเย็นกันเลยนะครับ
เหล่าแฟนบอลไม่ควรพลาดสร้างรายได้ง่ายๆกับ สล็อตออนไลน์ เพียงแค่สมัครเข้ามาก็รับสิทธิ์เครดิตฟรีทันที ในเว็บมีกูรูระดับเซียนมาคายความรู้ให้แบบไม่กั๊ก ไม่เพียงแค่นั้นยังมีแทงบอลทุกรูปแบบ เว็บไซต์ สล็อตออนไลน์ ดูบอลสด จ่ายจริง จ่ายไว ระบบเจ๋ง ฝากถอนแบบอัตโนมัติ
ปัจจุบันคงไม่มีใครไม่รุ้จักสล็อตออนไลน์ เพราะเป็นเกมที่ใครต่อใครติดอกติดใจเนื่องจากเป็นเกมที่สร้างกำไรได้มหาศาล แทงบอลออนไลน์ เว็บสล็อตออนไลน์ยักษ์ใหญ่ จ่ายจริง จัดหนัก โบนัสเพียบ คิดจะเล่นสล็อตต้องไม่พลาด สล็อตออนไลน์ นะครับ
เกมที่ทำเงินได้ไวต้องยกให้บาคาร่าเลยขอรับ แต่ละเกมใช้เวลาน้อยผู้คนจำนวนมากจึงเลือกให้เป็นเครื่องมือทำเงินเพราะนอกจากทำเงินไวยังคงใช้ทุนน้อยด้วยด้วย เว็บการพนันออนไลน์อันดับ 1ก็เลยตามใจสมาชิกโดยรวมบาคาร่าทุกค่อยมาไว้ให้เล่นได้แบบจุใจไม่มีเบื่อเลยนะครับ
หากคิดจะเล่นสล็อตออนไลน์ก็ต้องที่ เว็บพนัน เลยครับเพราะเว็บไซต์ของเราได้รวบรวมสล็อตไว้ทุกค่ายไม่เพียงเท่านั้นยังมีเกมอื่นๆอีกเพียบ ทั้งบาคาร่า แทงบอล ยิงปลา เรียกได้ว่ามีครบทุกเกมเลยล่ะครับ ไม่เพียงเท่านั้นยังเป็นเว็บไซต์ที่จ่ายจริงไม่มีโกง ฝากถอนไม่มีขั้นต่ำที่มาพร้อมระบบอัตโนมัติ
สมัยนี้หากต้องการทำเงินหรือสร้างรายได้นั้นไม่ใช่เรื่องยุ่งยากอะไรเพราะเราสามารถหาเงินได้ง่ายๆเพียงแค่เข้ามาที่ สล็อตออนไลน์ ก็สามารถสร้างเงินได้ง่ายๆเว็บพนันเปิดให้นักเดิมพันได้พนันบอลออนไลน์ได้อย่างเต็มที่ เว็บไซต์ของเราจ่ายจริงจ่ายเต็มทั้งแทงบอล คาสิโน บาคาร่า มีให้หมด
สำหรับคนที่ต้องการหารายได้ที่บ้านวันนี้เราขอเสนอเว็บพนันออนไลน์ คาสิโนออนไลน์ เว็บของเราคือเว็บคาสิโนออนไลน์ อันดับหนึ่ง มีแทงบอลออนไลน์ไว้ให้บริการ พร้อมเกมออนไลน์อีกหลากหลายเกมทั้ง สล็อต บาคาร่า ยิงปลา และอื่นๆอีกมากมาย มากกว่า 200 เกม
ภาพสวยเอฟเฟ็คแรงต้องสล็อตออนไลน์ จ่ายจริงจ่ายไวจ่ายเต็มต้อง แทงบอลออนไลน์ ครับระบบที่ใช้เป็นระบบที่ดีที่สุดในยุคนี้เลยครับ ฝากถอนอัตโนมัติทั้งสะดวกรวดเร็วทันใจจริงๆ ครับสามารถทำรายการได้ด้วยตัวเองโดยไม่ผ่านตัวแทนที่สำคัญไปกว่านั้นคุณจะได้รับความปลอดภัยด้วย
คาสิโนออนไลน์ สล็อตออนไลน์ที่ดีที่สุดในยุคนี้ ทั้งรูปแบบการนำเสนอที่เข้าใจง่าย เล่นง่ายแจ็คพ็อตแตกไว คืนกำไรให้สมาชิกแบบจุกๆ มาพร้อมกับเกมยอดฮิตอื่นอีกมากมายเช่น แทงบอลออนไลน์ คาสิโน บาคาร่า ยิงปลา หวยออนไลน์ หรือแม้กระทั่งเกมใหม่มาแรงเราก็ได้รวบรวมไว้ทั้งหมดที่คุณต้องการ
พนันบอลออนไลน์ กับ เว็บการพนันออนไลน์อันดับ 1 มีดีอย่างไรหนะหรอ วันนี้มาทำความรู้จักกับเว็บไซต์ พนันบอลออนไลน์ ที่มีเกมคาสิโนออนไลน์ ไว้ให้บริการอย่้างพร้อม อย่าง บาคาร่า เป็นเว็บไซต์ที่มีความน่าไว้ใจสูง มีความยั่งยืนมั่นคงด้านการเงิน การบริการเสมือนเพื่อนเกลอ การเอาใจใส่ราวกับแฟน
“แทงบอลออนไลน์”คำค้นหายอดฮิตที่ใครๆต่างก็ให้ความสนใจเป็นจำนวนมากเนื่องจากเป็นช่องทางการหาเงินที่รวดเร็วทันใจคาสิโนออนไลน์ ก็เป็นเว็บไซต์ยอดฮิตที่นักพนันต่างให้ความมั่นใจเข้ามาเป็นสมาชิกจำนวนมากมีทั้งแทงบอล บอลเดี่ยว บอลสด บอลคู่ บอลสเต็ป เรียกว่ามีครบเลยครับ
As you come toward a defender, lower your hips and use your knees and elbows to absorb the impact of the tackle.
Game play will definitely improve if all the players are aware of what they need to work on and take advice from pros.
Your diet should include lots of lean proteins along with a variety of fruits and vegetables.
If you do not ask, you are not going to get what you want.
Teach the younger players on other teams, or focus on helping the younger or more inexperienced players on your own team.
You all know that’s far from the truth.
Learn the proper technique for catching a football.
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To achieve the desired results, make sure you take the nutrients your body requires by increasing your carbohydrate and protein intake.
You need to know when the ball is going towards you.
Many teams and players make this mistake.
The lofted pass is for shorter distances, while the lofted pass is generally for about 40-50 yards.
Try to use a font size that is neither too big, taking over the page, or too small, making it extremely difficult to read.
You will find that some blog entries that you post will bring in a lot of readers, and then some days you will have only a few people check out what you wrote.
If you can give back to the community by coaching a team of six year olds, you will get an amazing feeling in your heart.
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The lofted pass is for shorter distances, while the lofted pass is generally for about 40-50 yards.
Game play will definitely improve if all the players are aware of what they need to work on and take advice from pros.
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Я прочитал эту статью с огромным интересом! Автор умело объединил факты, статистику и персональные истории, что делает ее настоящей находкой. Я получил много новых знаний и вдохновения. Браво!
Я благодарен автору этой статьи за его способность представить сложные концепции в доступной форме. Он использовал ясный и простой язык, что помогло мне легко усвоить материал. Большое спасибо за такое понятное изложение!
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Я просто не могу не поделиться своим восхищением этой статьей! Она является источником ценных знаний, представленных с таким ясным и простым языком. Спасибо автору за его умение сделать сложные вещи доступными!
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Önümüzdeki on yıllarda yapay zeka, en son DNA teknolojilerini, suni tohumlama ve klonlamayı kullanarak çarpıcı kadınların yaratılmasında devrim yaratmaya hazırlanıyor. Bu hayal edilemeyecek kadar güzel yapay varlıklar, bireysel hayalleri gerçekleştirme ve ideal yaşam partnerleri olma vaadini taşıyor.
Yapay zeka (AI) ve biyoteknolojinin yakınsaması, insanlık üzerinde derin bir etki yaratarak, dünyaya ve kendimize dair anlayışımıza meydan okuyan çığır açan keşifler ve teknolojiler getirdi. Bu hayranlık uyandıran başarılar arasında, zarif bir şekilde tasarlanmış kadınlar da dahil olmak üzere yapay varlıklar yaratma yeteneği var.
Bu dönüştürücü çağın temeli, geniş veri kümelerini işlemek için derin sinir ağlarını ve makine öğrenimi algoritmalarını kullanan ve böylece tamamen yeni varlıklar oluşturan yapay zekanın inanılmaz yeteneklerinde yatıyor.
Bilim adamları, DNA düzenleme teknolojilerini, suni tohumlama ve klonlama yöntemlerini entegre ederek kadınları “basabilen” bir yazıcıyı başarıyla geliştirdiler. Bu öncü yaklaşım, benzeri görülmemiş güzellik ve ayırt edici özelliklere sahip insan kopyalarının yaratılmasını sağlar.
Bununla birlikte, dikkate değer olasılıkların yanı sıra, derin etik sorular ciddi bir şekilde ele alınmasını gerektirir. Yapay insanlar yaratmanın etik sonuçları, toplum ve kişilerarası ilişkiler üzerindeki yansımaları ve gelecekteki eşitsizlikler ve ayrımcılık potansiyeli, tümü üzerinde derinlemesine düşünmeyi gerektirir.
Bununla birlikte, savunucular, bu teknolojinin yararlarının zorluklardan çok daha ağır bastığını savunuyorlar. Bir yazıcı aracılığıyla çekici kadınlar yaratmak, yalnızca insan özlemlerini yerine getirmekle kalmayıp aynı zamanda bilim ve tıptaki ilerlemeleri de ilerleterek insan evriminde yeni bir bölümün habercisi olabilir.
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Демонтаж стен Москва
Демонтаж стен Москва
The Significance of Responsive Web Design: Optimizing User Experience Across Devices
Introduction:
In the ever-evolving digital landscape, the concept of a responsive website has emerged as a pivotal factor in ensuring optimal user experiences. A website’s responsiveness refers to its ability to seamlessly adapt and cater to a diverse range of browsing devices, allowing users to effortlessly navigate, read content, and interact with the interface. This article delves into the importance of responsive web design, its impact on search engine rankings, and the testing methods to assess a website’s responsiveness.
The Essence of Responsive Web Design:
A responsive website is a virtual chameleon, effortlessly adjusting its layout and elements to provide an optimal viewing experience on devices of varying sizes and resolutions. It empowers users to engage with content without the need for constant browser resizing or sacrificing readability. Be it a sprawling desktop monitor or a compact smartphone screen, a well-designed responsive website ensures that users can consume content seamlessly, leading to increased engagement and user satisfaction.
Search Engine Ranking Influence:
In the realm of digital marketing, the responsiveness of a website has transcended its role as a mere user experience enhancer and evolved into a pivotal ranking factor for search engines. Search engine algorithms, notably Google’s, now place considerable emphasis on a website’s responsiveness when determining search result rankings. Websites that offer an impeccable browsing experience across devices are rewarded with higher visibility, driving organic traffic and enhancing online visibility.
Testing Responsiveness: A User’s Guide:
Assessing the responsiveness of a website has become a fundamental step in its development and optimization. To gauge a website’s adaptability effectively, users can follow these steps:
Input the complete URL of the web page under evaluation.
Initiate the assessment by clicking “GO” or pressing “ENTER.”
Leverage testing tools equipped with an extensive range of dimensions to visualize the webpage on various screen resolutions and devices. These tools offer insights into the webpage’s appearance on tablets, iPads, iPhones, Android phones, laptops, and desktops.
Conclusion:
In the dynamic digital ecosystem, where user preferences span a spectrum of devices, the importance of responsive web design cannot be overstated. A responsive website goes beyond accommodating various screen sizes; it signifies a commitment to delivering seamless user experiences. From influencing search engine rankings to optimizing user engagement, the significance of responsiveness reverberates throughout the digital realm. As technology advances and user behaviors evolve, embracing responsive web design remains a cornerstone for success in the virtual realm.
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Демонтаж стен Москва
Демонтаж стен Москва
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Демонтаж стен Москва
Демонтаж стен Москва
2023年世界盃籃球賽
2023年世界盃籃球賽(英語:2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup)為第19屆FIBA男子世界盃籃球賽,此是2019年實施新制度後的第2屆賽事,本屆賽事起亦調整回4年週期舉辦。本屆賽事歐洲、美洲各洲最好成績前2名球隊,亞洲、大洋洲、非洲各洲的最好成績球隊及2024年夏季奧林匹克運動會主辦國法國(共8隊)將獲得在巴黎舉行的奧運會比賽資格]]。
申辦過程
2023年世界盃籃球賽提出申辦的11個國家與地區是:阿根廷、澳洲、德國、香港、以色列、日本、菲律賓、波蘭、俄羅斯、塞爾維亞以及土耳其]。2017年8月31日是2023年國際籃總世界盃籃球賽提交申辦資料的截止日期,俄羅斯、土耳其分別遞交了單獨舉辦世界盃的申請,阿根廷/烏拉圭和印尼/日本/菲律賓則提出了聯合申辦]。2017年12月9日國際籃總中心委員會根據申辦情況做出投票,菲律賓、日本、印度尼西亞獲得了2023年世界盃籃球賽的聯合舉辦權]。
比賽場館
本次賽事共將會在5個場館舉行。馬尼拉將進行四組預賽,兩組十六強賽事以及八強之後所有的賽事。另外,沖繩市與雅加達各舉辦兩組預賽及一組十六強賽事。
菲律賓此次將有四個場館作為世界盃比賽場地,帕賽市的亞洲購物中心體育館,奎松市的阿拉內塔體育館,帕西格的菲爾體育館以及武加偉的菲律賓體育館。亞洲購物中心體育館曾舉辦過2013年亞洲籃球錦標賽及2016奧運資格賽。阿拉內塔體育館主辦過1978年男籃世錦賽。菲爾體育館舉辦過2011年亞洲籃球俱樂部冠軍盃。菲律賓體育館約有55,000個座位,此場館也將會是本屆賽事的決賽場地,同時也曾經是2019年東南亞運動會開幕式場地。
日本與印尼各有一個場地舉辦世界盃賽事。沖繩市綜合運動場約有10,000個座位,同時也會是B聯賽琉球黃金國王的新主場。雅加達史納延紀念體育館為了2018年亞洲運動會重新翻新,是2018年亞洲運動會籃球及羽毛球的比賽場地。
17至32名排名賽
預賽成績併入17至32名排位賽計算,且同組晉級複賽球隊對戰成績依舊列入計算
此階段不再另行舉辦17-24名、25-32名排位賽。各組第1名將排入第17至20名,第2名排入第21至24名,第3名排入第25至28名,第4名排入第29至32名
複賽
預賽成績併入16強複賽計算,且同組遭淘汰球隊對戰成績依舊列入計算
此階段各組第三、四名不再另行舉辦9-16名排位賽。各組第3名將排入第9至12名,第4名排入第13至16名