A Long Night’s Sleep on Economic Activity

Today, the Government assigned national holiday when the election of the head of the area (PILKADA) simultaneously on June 27 will not impact significantly to trade in the stock market. Investors pay more attention to the Governor’s Council meeting (RDG) Bank Indonesia later this month and might estimate that the BI would raise the interest rates in the meeting. They will respond to positive sentiment in terms of rise in interest rates and the composite stock price Index (IHSG) expected moving can be strengthened.

However, the Government is indeed ideally not too much set off. For this June, effectively working days are only about 12 days. All economic activity in the country could negatively affect the IHSG. For example, at the beginning of the opening of trading after a long holiday lebaran, IHSG dramatically declined. Wednesday on June 20, an index of 1.83% directly shrink to as low as 5,884.039.

This happens because the Indonesia markets late responding to global sentiment while regional markets are already adjusting first. But there was an important incident. The Fed raised the interest rates and removed the signal regarding raising the rates aggressively this year. A trade war between the United States and China are also heating up.

While that sentiment appears, Indonesia is still off. Late response affected the JCI slump. But the global market is already showing signal reverses direction. Currently, the country’s stock market has begun to improve although IHSG slightly decreased 0.57% to trade at 5,825.65 level yesterday on June 26. The stock index could still move positive. The positive sentiment that will drive the strengthening on stock index is market participants’ confidence that Bank Indonesia will raise the interest rate reference or BI 7-day reverse repo rate, in response to a rise in the interest rates at The Fed. Market will support the interest rates rise.

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