The Opportunity Lies in China Coal Demand

This week, the global coal prices survive in the green zone.

Coal import from China contributes to strengthening the coal market. According to Thomson Reuters Supply Chain and Commodity Forecasts, in the first semester of 2018, China’s coal demand is 126.6 million tons –increase 14% from the same period last year. Moreover, this month the demand reach the highest point, with the total volume of 25.9 million tons –it surpasses the highest record of this year, 23.2 million tons in March 2018.
Indonesia is one of the major coal supplier for China, exporting 61.8 million tons, or 49% of the total coal imports in that country. This data actually raises question for those who believed China was trying to lower the level of air pollution –lower coal demands. The issue became a hot topic in Indonesia because the coal imported from Indonesia was dominated by low-quality coal, with 4,200 kcal/kg or less, thus the news generate negative sentimen for the mining sector. However, the coal produced from Indonesia contains a lower sulphur (and a lower price). A lower sulphur coals help China to consistently reduce sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide emissions.

Although the coal prices keep flying to the north, the mining sector in Indonesian stock market reflects the opposite direction. The price in mining sector is sharply corrected. According to Houtman Saragih in CNBC Indonesia, the investors do profit taking, after the price strengthen significantly. This week, ITMG drop 5.34% to Rp 23.025/share, ADRO drop 4.23% to Rp 1.925/share, and INDY drop 3.93% to Rp 3.670/share.

Considering the good sentimen from global coal market, the stock price of mining sector is expected to rise until the end of the year. Now it may be the perfect time for investors or swing traders to collect the mining sector stocks.

Endang Dwi Astuti
An individual who passionate about analyzing the market.

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