Human are fallible creatures. We make mistakes and more often than not we aren’t able to realize it when we make one. One of the sources of such times is the bias from overconfidence. When we experience overconfidence, we overestimate our knowledge or our skills when in reality those confidences are baseless.
Don A. Moore, a psychologist from Psychology Today, thinks that this bias is the mother of biases because of two reasons. Firstly, it is so widespread and common that 93% of American drivers claim to be better than the median, which is virtually impossible . The second reason is that it is the root of many other biases. If we didn’t realize that we are vulnerable to psychological biases, this will make us prone to many other biases. Disproportionate confidence in ourselves, either it is in terms of knowledge, skills, or judgement, will make us ignore that vulnerability. Hence, it triggers and amplifies other biases.
There is an interesting book written by Peter Bevelin entitled “Seeking Wisdom”. This book mentions about overconfidence:
“Most of us believe we are better performers, more honest and intelligent, have a better future, have a happier marriage, are less vulnerable than the average person, etc. But we can’t all be better than average.”
Knowing our tendency to be overconfident, what can we do to prevent this bias to ruin our lives? Charlie Munger says that we should train and habituate our thinking into using simple high school probability more often. Moreover, Peter Bevelin reminds us that in every situation we should focus on what can go wrong and the consequences. Finally, to always be skeptical is also great to prevent ourselves to be trapped by the cloud of overconfidence and over-optimism.
 Ola Svenson, ‘Are We Less Risky and More Skillful than Our Fellow Drivers?’, Acta Psychologica, 47 (1981), 143–51.
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ภาพสวยเล่นง่ายได้เงินไวต้องยกให้ สล็อตออนไลน์เลยครับ เรียกได้ว่าเป็นเกมยอดฮิตที่ครองใจใครหลายคนเลยทีเดียว การพนันออนไลน์ จึงไม่พลาด จัดทั้งโบนัสและแจ็คพอตแบบรัวๆเพื่อเพิ่มโอกาสทำเงินให้สมาชิกนั่นเองครับ
แหล่งรวมเกมออนไลน์จึงควรยกให้ เว็บพนัน มีครบจบที่ตรงนี้ที่เดียวครับผม ทั้งยังบาคาร่า พนันบอล ที่สำคัญพลาดมิได้กับสล็อตออนไลน์ถือว่าเป็นเกมยอดนิยมในยุคนี้เลยก็ว่าได้ เพราะเหตุว่าได้เงินง่าย ทำเงินได้จริง ทุนน้อยก็รวยได้ ยิ่งที่ สล็อตออนไลน์ บอกเลยแจ็คพอตมากบบบ!
หากจะกล่าวถึงเกมออนไลน์ที่เล่นง่ายได้เงินไวคงต้องยกให้าบคาร่าออนไลน์ บาคาร่า จึงได้รวมเกมออนไลน์ไว้ทั้งหมดจุดเด่นของบาคาร่าคือเกมจบไวใช้ทุนน้อยทำให้เหล่านักพนันหันมาให้ความสนใจบาคาร่าเป็นอย่างมาก คาสิโนออนไลน์ รองรับด้วยระบบที่ดีที่สุดเพื่อให้สมาชิกทำเงินได้จริงและได้มากที่สุด
สล็อตเกมยอดฮิตที่เด็กเล่นได้ผู้ใหญ่เล่นได้เงิน รวยไปแบบงงๆกันไปเลย กับ สล็อตออนไลน์ ที่ใครๆต่างยกให้เป็นเกมในคาสิโนที่ทำเงินง่าย การพนันออนไลน์ รวมสล็อตไว้ให้เพียบ แจ็คพอตเพียบ โบนัสก็เพียบ บอกเลยเว็บนี้เค้าแจกอย่างป๋า ต้องที่นี่ที่เดียว ครบจบที่ คาสิโนออนไลน์
แทงบอลได้เงินจริงต้องที่ คาสิโนออนไลน์ เว็บแทงบอลออนไลน์ที่มีให้เลือกเล่นหลากหลายรูปแบบทั้งบอลสเต็บ บอลคู่ บอลเดี่ยว บอลสด มาพร้อมระบบที่เรียกว่าดีที่สุดในปัจจุบันยิ่งเป็นส่วนสำคัญให้ท่านนั้นสามารถเดิมพันได้ง่ายและมีโอกาสทำเงินได้จริงเรามีระบบช่วยเหลือทั้งด้านข้อมูล ผลการวิเคราะห์ต่างๆอีกมากมาย
สาวกผี สาวกหงส์ สาวกราชสีห์ สาวกเรือ สาวกไก่ สาวกหมาจิ้งจอก ไม่ว่าคุณจะเป็นสาวกไหนก็ตาม คาสิโนออนไลน์ ขอเป็นส่วนใดส่วนหนึ่งสำหรับในการแปลงสิ่งที่คุณถูกใจเป็นรายได้ ด้วยการชูคาสิโนมาไว้ให้ท่านพนันบอลออนไลน์ได้อย่างไม่ยากเย็นกันเลยนะครับ
เหล่าแฟนบอลไม่ควรพลาดสร้างรายได้ง่ายๆกับ สล็อตออนไลน์ เพียงแค่สมัครเข้ามาก็รับสิทธิ์เครดิตฟรีทันที ในเว็บมีกูรูระดับเซียนมาคายความรู้ให้แบบไม่กั๊ก ไม่เพียงแค่นั้นยังมีแทงบอลทุกรูปแบบ เว็บไซต์ สล็อตออนไลน์ ดูบอลสด จ่ายจริง จ่ายไว ระบบเจ๋ง ฝากถอนแบบอัตโนมัติ
ปัจจุบันคงไม่มีใครไม่รุ้จักสล็อตออนไลน์ เพราะเป็นเกมที่ใครต่อใครติดอกติดใจเนื่องจากเป็นเกมที่สร้างกำไรได้มหาศาล แทงบอลออนไลน์ เว็บสล็อตออนไลน์ยักษ์ใหญ่ จ่ายจริง จัดหนัก โบนัสเพียบ คิดจะเล่นสล็อตต้องไม่พลาด สล็อตออนไลน์ นะครับ
เกมที่ทำเงินได้ไวต้องยกให้บาคาร่าเลยขอรับ แต่ละเกมใช้เวลาน้อยผู้คนจำนวนมากจึงเลือกให้เป็นเครื่องมือทำเงินเพราะนอกจากทำเงินไวยังคงใช้ทุนน้อยด้วยด้วย เว็บการพนันออนไลน์อันดับ 1ก็เลยตามใจสมาชิกโดยรวมบาคาร่าทุกค่อยมาไว้ให้เล่นได้แบบจุใจไม่มีเบื่อเลยนะครับ
หากคิดจะเล่นสล็อตออนไลน์ก็ต้องที่ เว็บพนัน เลยครับเพราะเว็บไซต์ของเราได้รวบรวมสล็อตไว้ทุกค่ายไม่เพียงเท่านั้นยังมีเกมอื่นๆอีกเพียบ ทั้งบาคาร่า แทงบอล ยิงปลา เรียกได้ว่ามีครบทุกเกมเลยล่ะครับ ไม่เพียงเท่านั้นยังเป็นเว็บไซต์ที่จ่ายจริงไม่มีโกง ฝากถอนไม่มีขั้นต่ำที่มาพร้อมระบบอัตโนมัติ
สมัยนี้หากต้องการทำเงินหรือสร้างรายได้นั้นไม่ใช่เรื่องยุ่งยากอะไรเพราะเราสามารถหาเงินได้ง่ายๆเพียงแค่เข้ามาที่ สล็อตออนไลน์ ก็สามารถสร้างเงินได้ง่ายๆเว็บพนันเปิดให้นักเดิมพันได้พนันบอลออนไลน์ได้อย่างเต็มที่ เว็บไซต์ของเราจ่ายจริงจ่ายเต็มทั้งแทงบอล คาสิโน บาคาร่า มีให้หมด
สำหรับคนที่ต้องการหารายได้ที่บ้านวันนี้เราขอเสนอเว็บพนันออนไลน์ คาสิโนออนไลน์ เว็บของเราคือเว็บคาสิโนออนไลน์ อันดับหนึ่ง มีแทงบอลออนไลน์ไว้ให้บริการ พร้อมเกมออนไลน์อีกหลากหลายเกมทั้ง สล็อต บาคาร่า ยิงปลา และอื่นๆอีกมากมาย มากกว่า 200 เกม
ภาพสวยเอฟเฟ็คแรงต้องสล็อตออนไลน์ จ่ายจริงจ่ายไวจ่ายเต็มต้อง แทงบอลออนไลน์ ครับระบบที่ใช้เป็นระบบที่ดีที่สุดในยุคนี้เลยครับ ฝากถอนอัตโนมัติทั้งสะดวกรวดเร็วทันใจจริงๆ ครับสามารถทำรายการได้ด้วยตัวเองโดยไม่ผ่านตัวแทนที่สำคัญไปกว่านั้นคุณจะได้รับความปลอดภัยด้วย
คาสิโนออนไลน์ สล็อตออนไลน์ที่ดีที่สุดในยุคนี้ ทั้งรูปแบบการนำเสนอที่เข้าใจง่าย เล่นง่ายแจ็คพ็อตแตกไว คืนกำไรให้สมาชิกแบบจุกๆ มาพร้อมกับเกมยอดฮิตอื่นอีกมากมายเช่น แทงบอลออนไลน์ คาสิโน บาคาร่า ยิงปลา หวยออนไลน์ หรือแม้กระทั่งเกมใหม่มาแรงเราก็ได้รวบรวมไว้ทั้งหมดที่คุณต้องการ
พนันบอลออนไลน์ กับ เว็บการพนันออนไลน์อันดับ 1 มีดีอย่างไรหนะหรอ วันนี้มาทำความรู้จักกับเว็บไซต์ พนันบอลออนไลน์ ที่มีเกมคาสิโนออนไลน์ ไว้ให้บริการอย่้างพร้อม อย่าง บาคาร่า เป็นเว็บไซต์ที่มีความน่าไว้ใจสูง มีความยั่งยืนมั่นคงด้านการเงิน การบริการเสมือนเพื่อนเกลอ การเอาใจใส่ราวกับแฟน
“แทงบอลออนไลน์”คำค้นหายอดฮิตที่ใครๆต่างก็ให้ความสนใจเป็นจำนวนมากเนื่องจากเป็นช่องทางการหาเงินที่รวดเร็วทันใจคาสิโนออนไลน์ ก็เป็นเว็บไซต์ยอดฮิตที่นักพนันต่างให้ความมั่นใจเข้ามาเป็นสมาชิกจำนวนมากมีทั้งแทงบอล บอลเดี่ยว บอลสด บอลคู่ บอลสเต็ป เรียกว่ามีครบเลยครับ
As you come toward a defender, lower your hips and use your knees and elbows to absorb the impact of the tackle.
Game play will definitely improve if all the players are aware of what they need to work on and take advice from pros.
Your diet should include lots of lean proteins along with a variety of fruits and vegetables.
If you do not ask, you are not going to get what you want.
Teach the younger players on other teams, or focus on helping the younger or more inexperienced players on your own team.
You all know that’s far from the truth.
Learn the proper technique for catching a football.
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Since so much of the blogging going on these days is being done by teenagers and young people, parents must be extra cautious when it comes to their children’s blogging activities.
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To achieve the desired results, make sure you take the nutrients your body requires by increasing your carbohydrate and protein intake.
You need to know when the ball is going towards you.
Many teams and players make this mistake.
The lofted pass is for shorter distances, while the lofted pass is generally for about 40-50 yards.
Try to use a font size that is neither too big, taking over the page, or too small, making it extremely difficult to read.
You will find that some blog entries that you post will bring in a lot of readers, and then some days you will have only a few people check out what you wrote.
If you can give back to the community by coaching a team of six year olds, you will get an amazing feeling in your heart.
2. ต่อมาที่หน้าลงทะเบียน จะประกอบไปด้วยช่องให้กรอกรายละเอียดส่วนตัวต่าง ๆ โดยมีการตั้งชื่อ ยูเซอร์เนมและพาสเวิร์ดสำหรับเข้าใช้เว็บไซต์ด้วย
If you try to use fancy or small fonts, your readers might have a hard time figuring out what you are trying to read.
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The lofted pass is for shorter distances, while the lofted pass is generally for about 40-50 yards.
Game play will definitely improve if all the players are aware of what they need to work on and take advice from pros.
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